New data release: ECB wage tracker indicates negotiated wage pressures stable in 2026

PRESS RELEASENew data release: ECB wage tracker indicates negotiated wage pressures stable in 20266 May 2026ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to middle of April 2026; forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at end-December 2026Forward-looking information is broadly unrevised and indicates stable negotiated wage growth at around 2.6% by the end of 2026ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 51.3% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 41.9%). Compared with the March 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments is unrevised for 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as it smooths one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics.For 2026 the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters. The rise in the wage path over the course of the year is related to the dissipation of the mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments that were made in 2024 but not in 2025. This mechanical effect is expected to virtually disappear over the course of 2026 in the headline indicator. The deeply uncertain economic situation could lead to a stronger role for one-off payments in the coming year, but this is not yet reflected in the new collective bargaining agreements signed since the March 2026 data release.The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments reflects a stable and less volatile outlook than in previous years for negotiated wage growth in 2026 (averaging 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter, and 2.5% in the third and fourth quarters). The wage tracker excluding one-off payments is expected to hover around 2.6% in 2026 (averaging 2.7% in the first quarter and 2.6% for the remainder of the year), indicating more moderate dynamics in negotiated base wages than in recent years. Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 45.6% in the first quarter of the year, 43.5% in the second quarter, 39.5% in the third quarter and 38.8% in the fourth quarter. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details. For this data release, the wage tracker data for Austria were expanded and they now start in January 2013. The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker remains unchanged up to December 2026. As new agreements are being signed and coverage of contracts reaching beyond 2026 is gradually increasing, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 data release.Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information that is currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not track the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely, and deviations are to be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the March 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 3.4% in 2026.The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal. Chart 1ECB wage tracker: forward-looking signals for negotiated wages and revisions to the previous data releaseIndicators between January 2024 and December 2026Revisions to previous data release(left-hand scale: yearly growth rates, percentages; right-hand scale: percentage share of employees)(percentage points) Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the Belgian National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat. The indicator of negotiated wage growth is calculated using data from the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Spanish Ministry of Labour and Social Economy, the Banque de France, the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Austria, Statistics Finland, Haver Analytics and Eurostat.Notes: Dashed lines denote forward-looking information (which is not yet available for the indicator of negotiated wage growth). The latest observations are for December 2026 for the ECB wage tracker indicators (left panel), February 2026 for the indicator of negotiated wage growth (left panel) and December 2026 for revisions to the previous data release (right panel).What do the four different indicators show?The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months. The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or permanent) negotiated wage increases.The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology that, in terms of both data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, that used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth. The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and within each country over time (more details can be found in Table 2).Table 1ECB wage tracker summary(percentages) ECB wage trackerCoverageHeadline indicatorWith unsmoothed one-off paymentsExcluding one-off paymentsShare of employees (%)2013-242.22.32.150.820253.23.03.851.320262.32.62.641.9Q1 20254.72.74.551.2Q2 20254.04.14.351.5Q3 20252.32.13.551.5Q4 20251.83.13.151.0January 20261.93.92.945.6February 20261.72.32.645.6March 20261.92.52.545.5April 20261.92.52.544.6May 20262.22.72.643.0June 20262.32.62.642.9Q3 20262.62.52.639.5Q4 20262.62.52.638.8Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the Belgian National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat.Notes: ECB wage tracker indicators reflect yearly growth in negotiated wages as a percentage. Coverage is defined as the share of employees in participating countries as a percentage. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the forward-looking aspect of the respective indicators. Data are subject to revision. Table 2Employee coverage by country(share of employees in each country, percentages) BelgiumGermanyGreeceSpainFranceItalyNetherlandsAustriaFinlandEuro area2013-2438.242.517.462.652.151.764.175.266.350.8202544.645.720.556.055.748.761.878.662.351.3Q1 202644.145.720.937.742.448.758.774.662.345.6Q2 202644.143.120.836.938.948.457.865.062.243.5Q3 202644.035.820.734.334.348.355.560.561.539.5Q4 202643.935.220.734.033.147.355.058.560.338.8Sources: ECB calculations based on data provided by the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Belgian Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue, the Belgian National Social Security Office, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Dutch employers’ association AWVN, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, the Confederation of Finnish Industries, Statistics Finland and Eurostat.Notes: The euro area aggregate comprises the nine participating wage tracker countries. The coverage shows the relative strength of wage signals for each country and the euro area. The historical average is calculated from January 2015 for Finland and January 2016 for Greece. For the other countries, it is calculated from January 2013 to December 2024. Rows with values in italics and bold refer to the forward-looking aspect of the indicator. Data are subject to revision.For media queries, please contact Benoit Deeg, tel.: +491721683704 Notes:The ECB wage tracker is the result of a Eurosystem partnership currently comprising the ECB and nine euro area national central banks: the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank. It is based on a highly granular database of active collective bargainin