OpenAI performance concerns and the deepening of Musk's lawsuit reignite monetization pressure on the AI industry.

The monetization controversy surrounding the AI industry is resurfacing, following reports that OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, failed to meet its internal revenue targets, coupled with the intensifying lawsuit from Elon Musk alleging breach of non-profit promises. This is acting as a factor amplifying market skepticism regarding the establishment of practical business models and the achievement of financial performance amidst intensifying competition in AI technology development. The U.S. Department of Defense's announcement of expanded use of Google Gemini suggests the necessity of diversi

What Happened

Concerns recently emerged from within OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, that it had failed to meet its revenue targets, leading to a uniform decline across the three major New York stock indices. Alongside these performance concerns, a lawsuit filed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk against OpenAI gained momentum, once again highlighting the claim that OpenAI had abandoned its original non-profit mission and was focused on profit-seeking. Simultaneously, it is noteworthy that the U.S. Department of Defense announced it would expand its use of Google Gemini following the Anthropic blacklist, emphasizing the need for diversification of AI models and caution against over-reliance on specific models.

Why It Matters

OpenAI's recent performance concerns and Elon Musk's lawsuit raise fundamental questions about 'monetization' and 'sustainability' – core issues in the currently booming global AI industry. Over the past few years, AI has seen explosive growth alongside astronomical investments, yet actual revenue and profit generation relative to massive infrastructure and service development costs remains a challenge for many companies. Musk's lawsuit reignites discussions on the ethical direction of AI technology development and corporate social responsibility, acting as a factor that exacerbates uncertainty regarding the AI industry's long-term development path. In particular, the Anthropic blacklist and the rise of Google Gemini can be interpreted as intensified competition in the AI market and a move to reduce reliance on specific big tech companies.

Impact on the Korean Market

Monetization uncertainty in the global AI industry could indirectly affect related hardware markets, such as AI semiconductors. If AI service companies adjust their investment pace or shift to profit-oriented strategies, the growth in demand for AI semiconductors could potentially slow more than expected in the short term. This could weigh on investor sentiment for semiconductor-related stocks that have shown strength in the domestic market due to the AI theme. Furthermore, a tech-led market downturn could stimulate risk-off sentiment, increasing downward pressure on the Korean Won and affecting the domestic bond market. In the long term, the discovery of new business models leveraging AI technology and efficient cost management will emerge as key competitive strengths for Korean companies.

Key Stock Analysis

Samsung Electronics (005930, stock, negative): As a major player in the AI semiconductor, especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market, Samsung Electronics had high expectations for AI industry growth. However, OpenAI's performance concerns could lead AI service companies to adjust their investment pace, potentially negatively impacting short-term expectations for sales of high-value memory products like HBM.
SK Hynix (000660, stock, negative): As a leader in the HBM market, SK Hynix was considered a key beneficiary of AI industry growth. OpenAI's performance concerns imply a potential slowdown in HBM demand growth compared to expectations due to investment delays by AI service companies, which could lead to short-term investor sentiment contraction.
NAVER (035420, stock, neutral): NAVER is focusing on internalizing AI technology by developing its own AI model, 'HyperCLOVA X'. While global AI market monetization pressure could pose similar challenges for domestic AI service companies, rather than a specific company's issue directly impacting NAVER's business model, it could be interpreted as part of the overall maturation process of the AI market.
Hanmi Semiconductor (042700, stock, negative): Hanmi Semiconductor was considered a key beneficiary of increasing demand for AI semiconductor post-processing equipment and saw significant stock price appreciation. Profitability concerns across the AI industry could lead to delays in equipment investment, raising concerns about short-term investor sentiment contraction, and a re-evaluation of the actual growth rate of the AI market may be necessary in the future.
BTC (BTC, crypto, negative): The AI boom was expected to positively influence the cryptocurrency market as part of the technology innovation theme. However, monetization uncertainty in the AI industry could dampen investor sentiment across the technology innovation theme, indirectly exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Investors will pay closer attention to whether AI technology generates real value.
US10Y (US10Y, bond, positive): A tech-led market downturn could stimulate risk-off sentiment, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. This would act as a factor for a decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (bond price increase), and market volatility could expand as AI-related uncertainties grow.

Future Scenarios

OpenAI's performance concerns and the Musk lawsuit suggest that the AI industry is moving beyond the 'technology development' phase and entering the 'profitability' phase. An optimistic scenario is that this controversy serves as an opportunity for AI companies to build more realistic business models and seek efficient operations, contributing to the creation of a more robust industry ecosystem in the long term. Technological innovation will continue, and AI services that generate actual revenue could emerge, restoring market confidence. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario is that intensifying monetization pressure could lead to a contraction in AI companies' investment and R&D, potentially slowing technological advancement and causing the AI boom's bubble to burst. Investors should closely monitor future earnings announcements from AI companies, the specific monetization strategies presented by each company, and the impact of the U.S. Department of Defense's move towards AI model diversification on the actual industry. Discussions on the legal and ethical regulation of AI technology will also be a critical variable.