CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP · NYSE · CIK 0001163165
SIC 2911
Petroleum Refining
Category
Energy
Entity
operating
Incorp.
DE
Fiscal Y/E
1231
Source: SEC EDGAR · All filings on SEC →
Business Overview
Source: SEC 10-KConocoPhillips is a U.S.-based global independent oil and natural gas exploration and production (E&P) company. It is the largest crude oil producer in Alaska, operating major fields such as Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk and advancing new developments including the Willow Project. In the U.S. Lower 48, its largest segment, the company focuses on unconventional shale assets across the Delaware, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Midland basins. Internationally, it operates the Surmont oil sands and Montney play in Canada, fields in the Norwegian North Sea, LNG interests in Qatar, Libya and Equatorial Guinea, and exploration and production activities across China, Malaysia and Australia. ConocoPhillips produces crude oil, natural gas, LNG and natural gas liquids for sale in markets worldwide.
Investment Indicators
$120.48
+1.45 (+1.22%)
Open
$119.45
High
$120.82
Low
$117.83
Prev Close
$119.03
Volume
5,784,624
52W High
$134.87
52W Low
$81.58
50-day MA
$123.64
Quote as of: 2026-07-31
ROE
12.39%
Total Shareholder Yield
6.07%
Market Cap
$146.87B
P/E
20.47
P/B
2.31
PEG
1.04
EPS
5.89
BPS
52.98
Dividend Yield
2.65%
Beta
0.15
ROA
6.55%
D/E Ratio
0.89
Current Ratio
1.30
Net Margin
13.55%
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Multiple valuation methods, each with its own assumptions — outputs can diverge widely
Median consensus (7 methods)
$107.66B
Per-method implied market cap
| Method | Implied market cap | vs current |
|---|---|---|
Graham Number √(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본) | $107.66B | +36% |
Graham Formula 순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%) | $67.90B | +116% |
Justified P/E 순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E | $119.82B | +23% |
P/B 배수 자본 × 산업 평균 P/B | $96.73B | +52% |
P/S 배수 매출 × 산업 평균 P/S | $117.89B | +25% |
DCF (Gordon) CF × (1+g) / (r − g) | $219.96B | -33% |
DDM (Gordon) D × (1+g) / (r − g) | $44.39B | +231% |
▶Detailed analysis — formula walk-through & scenarios
Why this conclusion
Of the 7 valuation methods, 7 were applicable. Their median fair-value lands +36.4% below the current market cap → the stock trades above most formulas' estimates (overvalued). 4 methods flag overvalued, 1 flag undervalued, the rest land within fair range. Read each formula's assumptions below before treating any single number as the answer.
Graham Number
Overvalued +36.4%√(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본)
What it measures · Benjamin Graham's conservative safety-margin formula. A high value requires both earnings and equity to be solid, so read it as 'the ceiling for a financially intact company.'
How it is computed · √(22.5 × NetIncome × Equity). 22.5 = max P/E 15 × max P/B 1.5 Graham would pay. Net income is latest FY consolidated net income from DART/XBRL; equity is total equity from the same filing.
When to trust it · Best for stable profitable industrials. Underestimates SaaS/platform/biotech because intangible-heavy businesses carry little book equity.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$107.66B
Gap (current − fair)
+$39.21B(+36.4%)
NetIncome = $7.99B Equity = $64.49B √(22.5 × $7.99B × $64.49B) = $107.66B
- 최대 PER 15배
- 최대 PBR 1.5배
- 안정적 흑자 기업 가정 (금융·고성장 부정확)
Graham Formula
Overvalued +116.3%순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%)
What it measures · Graham's 1962 revision that bakes growth into the multiple. Unlike the static Graham Number, this scales linearly with EPS growth so growth stocks aren't punished as hard.
How it is computed · NetIncome × (8.5 + 2g). 8.5 = base P/E for a zero-growth firm; 2g = +2× P/E for every 1pp of EPS growth. g is YoY EPS growth, clamped to [-5%, +25%] so a single big year doesn't blow up the estimate.
When to trust it · Works for firms with proven, somewhat stable growth. Misleading for first-year profits, swing years, or any period where g is distorted by a one-time charge or gain.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$67.90B
Gap (current − fair)
+$78.97B(+116.3%)
NetIncome = $7.99B Growth g = -13.6% → cap -5.0% Multiple = 8.5 + 2 × -5.0 = -1.5× $7.99B × -1.5 = $-11.98B
- EPS 성장률 -13.6%/년 가정 (직전 1년 기준)
- 무성장 기업 P/E = 8.5
- 현재 적용 배수: 8.5x
Justified P/E
Fair +22.6%순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E
What it measures · Relative-value benchmark — "should trade at the industry average P/E." Not an absolute intrinsic value; tells you how the firm prices vs its peer set.
How it is computed · NetIncome × industry P/E. Defaults to a market-wide 15× when no industry multiple is provided. Net income is the latest FY consolidated net income.
When to trust it · Most reliable in mature industries with comparable peers (banks, telcos, utilities, refiners). Less useful for big-tech / hardware where industry P/Es span 10×–60×.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$119.82B
Gap (current − fair)
+$27.05B(+22.6%)
NetIncome = $7.99B Industry P/E = 15× $7.99B × 15 = $119.82B
- 산업 평균 PER 15x 가정 (사용자 정의 가능)
- 동종 업종 비교가 핵심 — 산업별 평균 P/E 사용 권장
P/B 배수
Overvalued +51.8%자본 × 산업 평균 P/B
What it measures · Multiplies book equity by industry P/B to imply a fair market cap. Best for asset-heavy businesses (banks, insurers, brokers, REITs) where balance-sheet value is the franchise.
How it is computed · Total Equity × industry P/B. Defaults to 1.5×. Equity is total equity (or parent-owners share) from the latest balance sheet.
When to trust it · Strongest for banks/insurers — asset-liability matching is the business. Materially under-prices SaaS, platforms, and brand-heavy businesses where intangible value dwarfs book equity.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$96.73B
Gap (current − fair)
+$50.13B(+51.8%)
Equity = $64.49B Industry P/B = 1.5× $64.49B × 1.5 = $96.73B
- 산업 평균 PBR 1.5x 가정
- 은행·보험·자산집약적 산업에 특히 유효
P/S 배수
Fair +24.6%매출 × 산업 평균 P/S
What it measures · Multiplies revenue by industry P/S. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage, restructuring) — revenue stays positive.
How it is computed · Revenue × industry P/S. Defaults to 2.0×. Revenue is the latest FY consolidated top line.
When to trust it · Ignores margin structure — a 30% operating margin business and a -5% one get the same multiple. Only meaningful within peer + margin cohort.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$117.89B
Gap (current − fair)
+$28.98B(+24.6%)
Revenue = $58.94B Industry P/S = 2× $58.94B × 2 = $117.89B
- 산업 평균 PSR 2x 가정
- 매출 기반 — 적자 기업·신생 기업에 적용 가능
- 이익률 차이 무시
DCF (Gordon)
Undervalued -33.2%CF × (1+g) / (r − g)
What it measures · Simplified Gordon-growth DCF — discounting perpetual cash flows. Extremely sensitive to the cash-flow / discount-rate / growth-rate inputs; trust the scenario grid more than the headline number.
How it is computed · FCF × (1+g) / (r − g). FCF preferred from XBRL/DART; falls back to NetIncome, then 5% of Revenue (rough proxy). Discount rate r = risk-free (4%) + equity premium (5%) = 9%. Growth g is EPS YoY clamped to [-2%, +6%], default 3%.
When to trust it · Strongest for steady, predictable businesses. When r-g approaches 0, the denominator blows up; near-perpetuity-growth combos are intentionally voided. Useless for cyclicals (semis, commodities, shipping) where g itself is noise.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$219.96B
Gap (current − fair)
$-73.09B(-33.2%)
FCF = $19.80B Discount r = 4.0% + 5.0% = 9.0% Growth g = -2.0% $19.80B × (1 + -2.0%) / (9.0% − -2.0%) = $176.36B
- 현금흐름 입력: FCF (잉여현금흐름)
- 할인율 9.0% (무위험 4.0% + 주식위험프리미엄 5.0%)
- 영구 성장률 0.0% (0%~3% 범위 — 실질 GDP 한계)
DDM (Gordon)
Overvalued +230.9%D × (1+g) / (r − g)
What it measures · Values the firm purely on dividends paid to shareholders. Cleanest in theory, but only meaningful when management clearly intends to pay dividends — useless for share-repurchase-only payout policies.
How it is computed · D × (1+g) / (r − g). D from DART alotMatter (배당사항) or |CF dividendsPaid|. If absent, cascades to 30% of NetIncome (typical payout) → 30% of FCF → 1.5% of Revenue. r and g assumptions match DCF.
When to trust it · Most reliable for stable high-yielders (Korean utilities, tobacco, financial holdings). Sharply under-prices buyback-heavy firms (US big tech, parts of Korean IT) — look at the TSY column on the listing page to balance.
Current
$146.87B
Implied fair
$44.39B
Gap (current − fair)
+$102.48B(+230.9%)
Dividend D = $4.00B Discount r = 9.0% Growth g = -2.0% $4.00B × (1 + -2.0%) / (9.0% − -2.0%) = $35.59B
- 배당 입력: 실제 지급 배당
- 할인율 9.0%
- 배당 영구 성장률 0.0% (0%~3% 범위 — 실질 GDP 한계)
DCF sensitivity: discount rate × terminal growth
Each cell is the (current vs FCF × (1+g) / (r − g)) discount % under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | -55.9% | -48.6% | -41.2% | -33.9% | -26.5% |
| 2% | -63.6% | -56.4% | -49.1% | -41.8% | -34.5% |
| 3% | -71.2% | -64.0% | -56.8% | -49.6% | -42.4% |
| 4% | -78.6% | -71.5% | -64.3% | -57.2% | -50.1% |
| 5% | -85.9% | -78.8% | -71.7% | -64.7% | -57.6% |
DDM sensitivity: discount rate × dividend growth
Each cell is the discount % vs Dividend × (1+g) / (r − g) under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | +118.4% | +154.8% | +191.2% | +227.6% | +264.0% |
| 2% | +80.2% | +116.2% | +152.3% | +188.3% | +224.4% |
| 3% | +42.8% | +78.5% | +114.1% | +149.8% | +185.5% |
| 4% | +6.0% | +41.4% | +76.7% | +112.1% | +147.4% |
| 5% | -30.0% | +5.0% | +40.0% | +75.1% | +110.1% |
All estimates rest on strong assumptions. Treat the spread, not any single number, as the signal.
Showing the latest 5 years only
17 years of financials are available for this stock. Unlock the remaining 12 years (10+ year history) with Pro.
Upgrade to Pro · $1.99/moIn USD millions (per-share figures shown directly) · Financials as of: 2026-02-17
핵심 지표 FY 2025
ROE
12.39%
총주주수익률
6.07%
PER
20.47
PBR
2.31
PSR
2.49
PEG
1.04
EV/EBITDA
12.29
배당수익률
2.65%
ROA
6.55%
부채비율
0.89
유동비율
1.30
매출총이익률
62.13%
영업이익률
0.00%
순이익률
13.55%
EPS
$5.89
BPS
$52.98
실적 추이
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