Phillips 66
PSX · NYSE · CIK 0001534701
SIC 2911
Petroleum Refining
Category
Energy
Entity
operating
Incorp.
DE
Fiscal Y/E
1231
Source: SEC EDGAR · All filings on SEC →
Business Overview
Source: SEC 10-KThe Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas. Its name, dating back to 1927 as a trademark of the Phillips Petroleum Company, assisted in establishing the newly reconfigured Phillips 66. The company today was formed ten years after Phillips merged with Conoco to form ConocoPhillips. The merged company spun off its refining, chemical, and retail assets – known in the oil industry as downstream operations – into a new company bearing the Phillips 66 name. It began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on May 1, 2012, under the ticker PSX.
Investment Indicators
$211.68
+1.08 (+0.51%)
Open
$213.50
High
$213.99
Low
$208.86
Prev Close
$210.60
Volume
2,911,191
52W High
$189.24
52W Low
$107.50
50-day MA
$172.24
Quote as of: 2026-07-31
ROE
15.13%
Total Shareholder Yield
4.52%
Market Cap
$70.02B
P/E
17.24
P/B
2.44
PEG
0.99
EPS
10.13
BPS
72.53
Dividend Yield
2.80%
Beta
0.69
ROA
5.98%
D/E Ratio
1.49
Current Ratio
1.30
Net Margin
3.33%
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Multiple valuation methods, each with its own assumptions — outputs can diverge widely
Median consensus (7 methods)
$66.05B
Per-method implied market cap
| Method | Implied market cap | vs current |
|---|---|---|
Graham Number √(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본) | $53.69B | +30% |
Graham Formula 순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%) | $257.58B | -73% |
Justified P/E 순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E | $66.05B | +6% |
P/B 배수 자본 × 산업 평균 P/B | $43.64B | +60% |
P/S 배수 매출 × 산업 평균 P/S | $264.75B | -74% |
DCF (Gordon) CF × (1+g) / (r − g) | $85.18B | -18% |
DDM (Gordon) D × (1+g) / (r − g) | $32.99B | +112% |
▶Detailed analysis — formula walk-through & scenarios
Why this conclusion
Of the 7 valuation methods, 7 were applicable. Their median fair-value lands +6.0% below the current market cap → the stock trades above most formulas' estimates (overvalued). 3 methods flag overvalued, 3 flag undervalued, the rest land within fair range. Read each formula's assumptions below before treating any single number as the answer.
Graham Number
Overvalued +30.4%√(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본)
What it measures · Benjamin Graham's conservative safety-margin formula. A high value requires both earnings and equity to be solid, so read it as 'the ceiling for a financially intact company.'
How it is computed · √(22.5 × NetIncome × Equity). 22.5 = max P/E 15 × max P/B 1.5 Graham would pay. Net income is latest FY consolidated net income from DART/XBRL; equity is total equity from the same filing.
When to trust it · Best for stable profitable industrials. Underestimates SaaS/platform/biotech because intangible-heavy businesses carry little book equity.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$53.69B
Gap (current − fair)
+$16.33B(+30.4%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Equity = $29.09B √(22.5 × $4.40B × $29.09B) = $53.69B
- 최대 PER 15배
- 최대 PBR 1.5배
- 안정적 흑자 기업 가정 (금융·고성장 부정확)
Graham Formula
Undervalued -72.8%순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%)
What it measures · Graham's 1962 revision that bakes growth into the multiple. Unlike the static Graham Number, this scales linearly with EPS growth so growth stocks aren't punished as hard.
How it is computed · NetIncome × (8.5 + 2g). 8.5 = base P/E for a zero-growth firm; 2g = +2× P/E for every 1pp of EPS growth. g is YoY EPS growth, clamped to [-5%, +25%] so a single big year doesn't blow up the estimate.
When to trust it · Works for firms with proven, somewhat stable growth. Misleading for first-year profits, swing years, or any period where g is distorted by a one-time charge or gain.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$257.58B
Gap (current − fair)
$-187.56B(-72.8%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Growth g = 108.0% → cap 25.0% Multiple = 8.5 + 2 × 25.0 = 58.5× $4.40B × 58.5 = $257.58B
- EPS 성장률 108.0%/년 가정 (직전 1년 기준)
- 무성장 기업 P/E = 8.5
- 현재 적용 배수: 58.5x
Justified P/E
Fair +6.0%순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E
What it measures · Relative-value benchmark — "should trade at the industry average P/E." Not an absolute intrinsic value; tells you how the firm prices vs its peer set.
How it is computed · NetIncome × industry P/E. Defaults to a market-wide 15× when no industry multiple is provided. Net income is the latest FY consolidated net income.
When to trust it · Most reliable in mature industries with comparable peers (banks, telcos, utilities, refiners). Less useful for big-tech / hardware where industry P/Es span 10×–60×.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$66.05B
Gap (current − fair)
+$3.97B(+6.0%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Industry P/E = 15× $4.40B × 15 = $66.05B
- 산업 평균 PER 15x 가정 (사용자 정의 가능)
- 동종 업종 비교가 핵심 — 산업별 평균 P/E 사용 권장
P/B 배수
Overvalued +60.4%자본 × 산업 평균 P/B
What it measures · Multiplies book equity by industry P/B to imply a fair market cap. Best for asset-heavy businesses (banks, insurers, brokers, REITs) where balance-sheet value is the franchise.
How it is computed · Total Equity × industry P/B. Defaults to 1.5×. Equity is total equity (or parent-owners share) from the latest balance sheet.
When to trust it · Strongest for banks/insurers — asset-liability matching is the business. Materially under-prices SaaS, platforms, and brand-heavy businesses where intangible value dwarfs book equity.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$43.64B
Gap (current − fair)
+$26.38B(+60.4%)
Equity = $29.09B Industry P/B = 1.5× $29.09B × 1.5 = $43.64B
- 산업 평균 PBR 1.5x 가정
- 은행·보험·자산집약적 산업에 특히 유효
P/S 배수
Undervalued -73.6%매출 × 산업 평균 P/S
What it measures · Multiplies revenue by industry P/S. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage, restructuring) — revenue stays positive.
How it is computed · Revenue × industry P/S. Defaults to 2.0×. Revenue is the latest FY consolidated top line.
When to trust it · Ignores margin structure — a 30% operating margin business and a -5% one get the same multiple. Only meaningful within peer + margin cohort.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$264.75B
Gap (current − fair)
$-194.74B(-73.6%)
Revenue = $132.38B Industry P/S = 2× $132.38B × 2 = $264.75B
- 산업 평균 PSR 2x 가정
- 매출 기반 — 적자 기업·신생 기업에 적용 가능
- 이익률 차이 무시
DCF (Gordon)
Undervalued -17.8%CF × (1+g) / (r − g)
What it measures · Simplified Gordon-growth DCF — discounting perpetual cash flows. Extremely sensitive to the cash-flow / discount-rate / growth-rate inputs; trust the scenario grid more than the headline number.
How it is computed · FCF × (1+g) / (r − g). FCF preferred from XBRL/DART; falls back to NetIncome, then 5% of Revenue (rough proxy). Discount rate r = risk-free (4%) + equity premium (5%) = 9%. Growth g is EPS YoY clamped to [-2%, +6%], default 3%.
When to trust it · Strongest for steady, predictable businesses. When r-g approaches 0, the denominator blows up; near-perpetuity-growth combos are intentionally voided. Useless for cyclicals (semis, commodities, shipping) where g itself is noise.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$85.18B
Gap (current − fair)
$-15.17B(-17.8%)
FCF = $4.96B Discount r = 4.0% + 5.0% = 9.0% Growth g = 6.0% $4.96B × (1 + 6.0%) / (9.0% − 6.0%) = $175.32B
- 현금흐름 입력: FCF (잉여현금흐름)
- 할인율 9.0% (무위험 4.0% + 주식위험프리미엄 5.0%)
- 영구 성장률 3.0% (0%~3% 범위 — 실질 GDP 한계)
DDM (Gordon)
Overvalued +112.2%D × (1+g) / (r − g)
What it measures · Values the firm purely on dividends paid to shareholders. Cleanest in theory, but only meaningful when management clearly intends to pay dividends — useless for share-repurchase-only payout policies.
How it is computed · D × (1+g) / (r − g). D from DART alotMatter (배당사항) or |CF dividendsPaid|. If absent, cascades to 30% of NetIncome (typical payout) → 30% of FCF → 1.5% of Revenue. r and g assumptions match DCF.
When to trust it · Most reliable for stable high-yielders (Korean utilities, tobacco, financial holdings). Sharply under-prices buyback-heavy firms (US big tech, parts of Korean IT) — look at the TSY column on the listing page to balance.
Current
$70.02B
Implied fair
$32.99B
Gap (current − fair)
+$37.02B(+112.2%)
Dividend D = $1.92B Discount r = 9.0% Growth g = 6.0% $1.92B × (1 + 6.0%) / (9.0% − 6.0%) = $67.91B
- 배당 입력: 실제 지급 배당
- 할인율 9.0%
- 배당 영구 성장률 3.0% (0%~3% 범위 — 실질 GDP 한계)
DCF sensitivity: discount rate × terminal growth
Each cell is the (current vs FCF × (1+g) / (r − g)) discount % under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | -16.2% | -2.2% | +11.8% | +25.7% | +39.7% |
| 2% | -30.8% | -17.0% | -3.2% | +10.7% | +24.5% |
| 3% | -45.2% | -31.5% | -17.8% | -4.1% | +9.6% |
| 4% | -59.3% | -45.7% | -32.2% | -18.6% | -5.0% |
| 5% | -73.1% | -59.7% | -46.2% | -32.8% | -19.4% |
DDM sensitivity: discount rate × dividend growth
Each cell is the discount % vs Dividend × (1+g) / (r − g) under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | +116.4% | +152.5% | +188.5% | +224.6% | +260.7% |
| 2% | +78.6% | +114.3% | +150.0% | +185.7% | +221.4% |
| 3% | +41.5% | +76.8% | +112.2% | +147.6% | +182.9% |
| 4% | +5.1% | +40.1% | +75.1% | +110.2% | +145.2% |
| 5% | -30.6% | +4.1% | +38.8% | +73.5% | +108.2% |
All estimates rest on strong assumptions. Treat the spread, not any single number, as the signal.
Showing the latest 5 years only
14 years of financials are available for this stock. Unlock the remaining 9 years (10+ year history) with Pro.
Upgrade to Pro · $1.99/moIn USD millions (per-share figures shown directly) · Financials as of: 2026-02-20
핵심 지표 FY 2025
ROE
15.13%
총주주수익률
4.52%
PER
17.24
PBR
2.44
PSR
0.53
PEG
0.99
EV/EBITDA
20.64
배당수익률
2.80%
ROA
5.98%
부채비율
1.49
유동비율
1.30
매출총이익률
12.30%
영업이익률
0.00%
순이익률
3.33%
EPS
$10.13
BPS
$72.53
실적 추이
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