Phillips 66
PSX · NYSE · CIK 0001534701
SIC 2911
Petroleum Refining
Category
Energy
Entity
operating
Incorp.
DE
Fiscal Y/E
1231
Source: SEC EDGAR · All filings on SEC →
Investment Indicators
$175.34
+3.78 (+2.20%)
Open
$171.94
High
$176.34
Low
$171.56
Prev Close
$171.56
Volume
1,854,196
52W High
$190.61
52W Low
$106.88
50-day MA
$169.73
Quote as of: 2026-05-11
Market Cap
$68.78B
P/E
16.95
P/B
2.41
PEG
1.03
EPS
10.12
BPS
72.53
Dividend Yield
2.89%
Beta
0.69
ROE
15.13%
ROA
5.98%
D/E Ratio
1.49
Current Ratio
1.30
Net Margin
3.33%
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Multiple valuation methods, each with its own assumptions — outputs can diverge widely
Median consensus (7 methods)
$67.91B
| Method | Implied market cap | vs current |
|---|---|---|
Graham Number √(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본) | $53.69B | +28% |
Graham Formula 순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%) | $257.58B | -73% |
Justified P/E 순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E | $66.05B | +4% |
P/B 배수 자본 × 산업 평균 P/B | $43.64B | +58% |
P/S 배수 매출 × 산업 평균 P/S | $264.75B | -74% |
DCF (Gordon) CF × (1+g) / (r − g) | $175.32B | -61% |
DDM (Gordon) D × (1+g) / (r − g) | $67.91B | +1% |
▶ Detailed analysis — formula walk-through & scenarios
Why this conclusion
Of the 7 valuation methods, 7 were applicable. Their median fair-value lands +1.3% below the current market cap → the stock trades above most formulas' estimates (overvalued). 2 methods flag overvalued, 3 flag undervalued, the rest land within fair range. Read each formula's assumptions below before treating any single number as the answer.
Graham Number
Overvalued +28.1%√(22.5 × 순이익 × 자본)
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$53.69B
Gap (current − fair)
+$15.10B(+28.1%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Equity = $29.09B √(22.5 × $4.40B × $29.09B) = $53.69B
- 최대 PER 15배
- 최대 PBR 1.5배
- 안정적 흑자 기업 가정 (금융·고성장 부정확)
Graham Formula
Undervalued -73.3%순이익 × (8.5 + 2 × 성장률%)
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$257.58B
Gap (current − fair)
$-188.79B(-73.3%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Growth g = 108.0% → cap 25.0% Multiple = 8.5 + 2 × 25.0 = 58.5× $4.40B × 58.5 = $257.58B
- EPS 성장률 108.0%/년 가정 (직전 1년 기준)
- 무성장 기업 P/E = 8.5
- 현재 적용 배수: 58.5x
Justified P/E
Fair +4.1%순이익 × 산업 평균 P/E
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$66.05B
Gap (current − fair)
+$2.74B(+4.1%)
NetIncome = $4.40B Industry P/E = 15× $4.40B × 15 = $66.05B
- 산업 평균 PER 15x 가정 (사용자 정의 가능)
- 동종 업종 비교가 핵심 — 산업별 평균 P/E 사용 권장
P/B 배수
Overvalued +57.6%자본 × 산업 평균 P/B
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$43.64B
Gap (current − fair)
+$25.14B(+57.6%)
Equity = $29.09B Industry P/B = 1.5× $29.09B × 1.5 = $43.64B
- 산업 평균 PBR 1.5x 가정
- 은행·보험·자산집약적 산업에 특히 유효
P/S 배수
Undervalued -74.0%매출 × 산업 평균 P/S
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$264.75B
Gap (current − fair)
$-195.97B(-74.0%)
Revenue = $132.38B Industry P/S = 2× $132.38B × 2 = $264.75B
- 산업 평균 PSR 2x 가정
- 매출 기반 — 적자 기업·신생 기업에 적용 가능
- 이익률 차이 무시
DCF (Gordon)
Undervalued -60.8%CF × (1+g) / (r − g)
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$175.32B
Gap (current − fair)
$-106.54B(-60.8%)
FCF = $4.96B Discount r = 4.0% + 5.0% = 9.0% Growth g = 6.0% $4.96B × (1 + 6.0%) / (9.0% − 6.0%) = $175.32B
- 현금흐름 입력: FCF (잉여현금흐름)
- 할인율 9.0% (무위험 4.0% + 주식위험프리미엄 5.0%)
- 영구 성장률 6.0% (실질 GDP 수준)
DDM (Gordon)
Fair +1.3%D × (1+g) / (r − g)
Current
$68.78B
Implied fair
$67.91B
Gap (current − fair)
+$873.74M(+1.3%)
Dividend D = $1.92B Discount r = 9.0% Growth g = 6.0% $1.92B × (1 + 6.0%) / (9.0% − 6.0%) = $67.91B
- 배당 입력: 실제 지급 배당
- 할인율 9.0%
- 배당 영구 성장률 6.0%
DCF sensitivity: discount rate × terminal growth
Each cell is the (current vs FCF × (1+g) / (r − g)) discount % under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | -17.7% | -3.9% | +9.8% | +23.5% | +37.2% |
| 2% | -32.0% | -18.5% | -4.9% | +8.7% | +22.3% |
| 3% | -46.2% | -32.7% | -19.2% | -5.8% | +7.7% |
| 4% | -60.0% | -46.7% | -33.4% | -20.0% | -6.7% |
| 5% | -73.6% | -60.4% | -47.2% | -34.0% | -20.8% |
DDM sensitivity: discount rate × dividend growth
Each cell is the discount % vs Dividend × (1+g) / (r − g) under the assumed growth g and discount r.
| g \ r | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | +112.6% | +148.0% | +183.5% | +218.9% | +254.3% |
| 2% | +75.4% | +110.5% | +145.6% | +180.7% | +215.8% |
| 3% | +39.0% | +73.7% | +108.5% | +143.2% | +178.0% |
| 4% | +3.2% | +37.6% | +72.1% | +106.5% | +140.9% |
| 5% | -31.8% | +2.3% | +36.3% | +70.4% | +104.5% |
All estimates rest on strong assumptions. Treat the spread, not any single number, as the signal.
Financial Statements
In USD millions (per-share figures shown directly) · Financials as of: 2026-02-20
Income Statement
| FY | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 132,376 | 143,153 | 147,399 | 169,990 | 111,476 |
| Cost of Revenue | 116,093 | 129,962 | 128,086 | 149,932 | 102,102 |
| Net Income | 4,403 | 2,117 | 7,015 | 11,024 | 1,317 |
| EPS (Basic) | 10.82 | 5.01 | 15.56 | 23.36 | 2.97 |
| EPS (Diluted) | 10.79 | 4.99 | 15.48 | 23.27 | 2.97 |
Balance Sheet
| FY | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 73,680 | 72,582 | 75,501 | 76,442 | 55,594 |
| Current Assets | 17,271 | 17,910 | 19,941 | 21,922 | 14,697 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 1,116 | 1,738 | 3,323 | 6,133 | 3,147 |
| Total Liabilities | 43,439 | 44,119 | 43,851 | 42,336 | 33,957 |
| Current Liabilities | 13,326 | 15,087 | 15,856 | 15,889 | 12,801 |
| Total Equity | 29,093 | 27,408 | 30,583 | 29,494 | 19,166 |
Cash Flow
| FY | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF | 4,962 | 4,191 | 7,029 | 10,813 | 6,017 |
| Investing CF | -2,097 | -2,463 | -1,790 | -1,488 | -1,872 |
| Financing CF | -3,537 | -3,305 | -8,092 | -6,388 | -3,470 |
| Dividends Paid | 1,922 | 1,882 | 1,882 | 1,793 | 1,585 |
📄 SEC Filings
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144
xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml
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3
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144
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144
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144/A
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144
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144
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144
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xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml
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xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml
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424B2
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